Harold Hotelling Memorial Lecture Series

2022
Speaker: Sam Huszczo
Date: Thursday, October 7
Lecture at 7 p.m.
Reception at 6 p.m.
Location: Mary E. Marburger Science and Engineering Auditorium (S100)

IS YOUR MIND GETTING IN THE WAY OF YOUR MONEY?
A current look into the psychology behind investing Survivalist behavior patterns such as "fight or flight" have helped humans evolve, climbing to the top of the food chain. Cooperative social behaviors have advanced societies. These practices are hard wired into our psychology. However, when it comes to the stock market, these actions can have an adverse effect, causing us to make bad investment decisions. Through an entertaining examination of psychological studies we can pinpoint the weaknesses of investor sentiment and find tangible ways to use these internal shortcomings to our advantage.

Join Chartered Financial Analyst Sam G. Huszczo as he explores how these behavioral biases are amplified in the post-COVID world of investing and learn how to avoid being your own worst enemy.

2019
Dr. Scott E. Page,
John Seely Brown Distinguished University Professor of Complexity, Social Science, and Management, University of Michigan

The Value of Many Model Thinking in a Complex World
Complex phenomena are difficult to describe, explain and predict. Confronted with a complex task, no single person or model will likely be correct. We therefore must apply multiple ways of thinking--diverse perspectives, algorithms, categories, heuristics, and models. That is especially true in an era of abundant data. Using a diverse collection of models does more than reduce the risk of bad outcomes, even informal models, explains the increased use of teams generally and the growth of interdisciplinary teams in the academy.

Page's research focuses on the function of diversity in complex social systems. He has been the recipient of a Guggenheim Fellowship as well as a fellowship at the Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford. In 2011, he was elected a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He is the author of more than 90 research papers in a variety of fields including: game theory, economics, political theory, formal political science, sociology, psychology, philosophy, physics, public health, geography, computer science, and management.

2018
Douglas Harris,
Schleider Foundation Chair in Public Education and Professor of Economics, Tulane University
Charter School City: What Detroit Can Learn from New Orleans Market-Based School Reforms

The changes in New Orleans schools after Hurricane Katrina represent the most radical school reform in the nation's history. The state took over almost all schools and turned them over to private charter school operators working under performance-based contracts. Teachers no longer worked under union contracts or with tenure protections. School attendance zones were eliminated. These market-based school reforms increased accountability, school autonomy, and parental choice in ways not seen in more than a century of American public schooling.  Harris will show that the reforms led to considerable improvement in a wide range of student outcomes. He will also explain how the lessons for other cities, and for the role of markets and governments, are more complicated than these results might suggest.

2017
Daniel R. Carroll,
Economist in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Opportunity in America: Trends in Inequality and Mobility

Central to the identity of the United States is that it is a “Land of Opportunity” where anyone, regardless of their circumstances, can rise as far as their ingenuity and effort will take them. Over the past four decades, this image has come under increasing scrutiny as income and wealth has grown more and more unequally distributed across our economy. This lecture will review the income and wealth data and discuss some of the important factors driving the increase in their dispersion. Additionally, we will examine new research on income and wealth mobility. How likely is an individual who starts with less to move up from “rags to riches” and join the top wealth holders? What policies can facilitate greater opportunity in our society?

2016
Julianne Smith
Senior Fellow and Director, Strategy and Statecraft, Center for a New American Security
Former Deputy National Security Advisor to the Vice President of the United States
National Security Challenges Facing the Next President

The next president will inherit a daunting set of national security challenges. Active conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Eastern Ukraine will demand early attention, as will ongoing worldwide counter-terrorism efforts. Regional tensions – in the South China Sea, on the Korean Peninsula, and across the broader Middle East – all have the potential to generate significant shocks. As adversaries develop new tactics to counter U.S. interests, there will be enormous pressure to develop new capabilities and policy tools. The United States continues to have a number of unique strengths that will help the next president cope with such challenges. But there are a number of reasons to be concerned. The growth of extremist terrorist movements like ISIS continues to pose challenges. Julianne Smith will discuss how the next president might navigate such a rich international agenda.

2015
Alan Deardorff
John W. Sweetland Professor of International Economics and a Professor of Economics and Public Policy
University of Michigan. 
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): Pros and Cons

(TPP) being negotiated between the United States and 11 other countries on both sides of the Pacific is billed as a “21st-century trade agreement.” Encompassing nearly 40 percent of the world’s gross domestic product, the agreement almost eliminates tariffs and other barriers to international trade among the 12 countries and includes protections for patents and other intellectual property rights, provisions intended to improve environmental and labor standards, and a mechanism for investors to initiate and settle disputes with host-country governments outside of any national courts. The TPP will inevitably meet huge opposition within the U.S. Congress, but each of its provisions will create winners and losers. Alan Deardorff will present what is known about the agreement and discuss its pros and cons.

2014
Paul Traub
Senior Business Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Detroit Branch
U.S. and Michigan economic Overview and Outlook

The economic recession that started in December 2007 was the greatest single contraction in the U.S. economy since the Great Depression forcing the Federal Reserve into an extraordinary monetary policy response. It has now been over 5 years since the start of the current economic recovery and the U.S. is still struggling to get back to its full potential. With the average economic expansion since 1961 running 71 months, what are the concerns that a normal business cycle contraction will prevent the U.S. from reaching its output potential during this business cycle? Mr. Traub's discussion compareD this recovery to past post-recession expansions and addressed some recent economic developments for the U.S. and Michigan. The topics covered included an analysis of consumption, private investment, global trade and federal and local government consumption and investment together with the Federal Reserve Banks role in helping the U.S. achieve a full economic recovery.

2013
Dr. Stephen Josiah Spurr, JD
Professor and Chair, Department of Economics, Wayne State University
The Fruits of Our Labor: Wages and Income Mobility in the U.S.

In his lecture, Dr. Spurr explored a variety of topics on the current economic climate in the U.S. and abroad. He addressed how married couples can juggle careers, housework, and childcare; how well U.S. workers are doing compared to the rest of the world, how the growth of the U.S. economy compares with other countries and whether we are still an upwardly mobile society. Is the U.S. still a land of opportunity or can you expect that your annual earnings will be largely determined by the earnings of your parents? As women across the world become more career-oriented, how does this affect the number of children they have and the division of household work?

2012
Dr. Michael Belzer
Associate Professor of Economics
Wayne State University
Transforming the Detroit Region into a Transportation Hub 

It's no secret that the Detroit region needs a tune-up. Michael Belzer proposes a solution: take advantage of our proximity to Canada and access to North America's only two transcontinental railroads to create an inland port similar to Chicago. This "Great Lakes Global Freight Gateway" would concentrate intermodal freight transport assets and transform the area into one of America's pre-eminent transport centers, proving regional business with low-cost and quick access to global markets. 

While the value proposition for business is great, Belzer estimates it's even greater for the region: $11 billion annually in new economic activity, 150,000 new jobs, and more than $1.3 billion in taxes to reenergize state and municipal governments.

2011
Dr. Charles Ballard

Michigan’s manufacturing-based economy was a powerhouse in the middle of the 20 ^th  century. But manufacturing has accounted for a shrinking portion of the economy for half a century. As a result, while incomes in Michigan were above the national average throughout the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, they have fallen below the national average in most years since then. This is partly because Michigan lags behind the national average in many aspects of educational attainment. If Michigan is to realize its potential for a brighter economic future, it will need to increase the skills of its workforce. Professor Ballard discussed the policies that will help to achieve that brighter future.

2010
Dr. Miron Stano

After describing trends in U.S. health care spending and health outcomes, Miron Stano provides an overview of cost-utility analysis. To many health care analysts, cost-utility analysis provides the conceptual framework for allocating dollars to alternative treatments including preventive measures. Although our current health care delivery system contains significant barriers to increased acceptance and adoption of preventive care, some preventive measures are not cost-effective. This presentation will focused on the various issues that relate to these barriers, the role of cost-utility analysis in preventive care, and recommendations for improving the efficiency of our health care system.