College of Management

With the U.S. presidential election on November 6, we are presented with an ever increasing onslaught of political polls and their results. To make a proper interpretation of a poll’s results, three additional variables should be specified in addition to the proportion results: the poll’s margin of error, the desired level of confidence, and the sample size. In this brief essay, I will review the math behind the margin of error in polls to help you with interpretation of polls.

Background Information
The purpose of a poll is to estimate the opinion or behavior of a population from a sample. We work with a sample since contacting the entire population is too time consuming, often too expensive, and can be physically impossible. Several methods of sampling are used, and simple random sampling, systematic sampling, stratified sampling, and cluster sampling are the most widely used methods.

After the sample is selected from the population, a statistic computed from sample information estimates a population parameter.  The statistic computed from the sample that estimates the population parameter is called a point estimate. As an example, the sample mean, , is the point estimate of the population parameter, μ, the population mean. For polls, the sample proportion, ρ, is the point estimate of the population parameter, π, the population proportion.

How Close is the Point Estimate to the Population Parameter?
We now come to the essence of this essay–the confidence interval estimate (CI). A confidence interval estimate is a range of values constructed from sample data so that the population parameter is likely to occur within that range at a specified probability. The specified probability is called the level of confidence, and in most cases of poll results, the level of confidence is set at .95 (i.e., a pollster has a 95% confidence that the true measurement lies within the margin of error). Putting all of this together gives us the following equation:  CI = point estimate ± margin of error

Accordingly, the CI is determined from the margin of error. You’ve seen the margin of error in some poll results, e.g., “The poll has a margin of error plus-minus 3.1 percentage points for the sample.” If the poll determined that ρ = .5, then the CI would be 50% ± 3.1% = 46.9-53.1, i.e., a pollster has a 95% confidence that the true poll results are 46.9% to 53.1%

I will now show how the margin of error is used to determine a poll’s CI and sample size.

How Is the CI Determined in a Poll?
To determine the CI in a poll, we will use the following formula to compute the margin of error: z * standard error. Mathematically, this formula is expressed as:

In this formula, z defines the level of confidence. In polls, the 95% level of confidence gives us a z score of 1.96. Also in polls, we determine the standard error as the maximum standard error by setting the proportion at 50% (ρ = .5).

We plug in these numbers to determine the margin of error at the 95% level of confidence:

Polls that we see in the media use the 95% level of confidence in determining the margin of error. However, statisticians also determine the margin of error using the 90% and 99% levels of confidence, although the 95% l.98evel of confidence is the most common. The margin of error for the 90% confidence level is calculated using a z score of 1.65:

For the 99% confidence level, the margin of error is calculated using a z score of 2.58:

How Is the Sample Size of a Poll Determined?
I noted above that the purpose of a poll is to estimate the opinion of a population from a sample. As researchers, we are interested in the generality of the data in terms of the number of subjects in the population to which the results apply. If a poll has a margin of error of 3.1%, we can use the formula for the margin of error to estimate the size of the sample:

A recent poll from NBC News/Wall Street Journal reported the following poll results:

Obama is ahead of Romney by five points, 49 percent to 44 percent. The full poll was conducted Oct. 17-20 among 1,000 registered voters. The poll has a margin of error plus-minus 3.1 percentage points for the sample of registered voters.

According to the formula above, we can see how the margin of error was calculated from the sample size of n = 1,000 registered voters.

Putting it All Together
A new TIME Poll has Obama holding a 49% to 44% lead over Romney in Ohio. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points. How do we interpret the results of this poll?

First, we estimate the sample size: n = (.98/.03)² = 1,067.

Second, we estimate the CI around each point estimate at the 95% level of confidence. Obama: 46-52     Romney: 41-47.

Finally, we decide that according to the results of this particular poll, a sample of 1,067 people in Ohio are equally likely to vote for Obama or Romney 95 times out of 100 (because the CIs overlap).

Conclusion
I wrote this essay to provide some clarity and perspective on election polls by reviewing the statistics behind polls. I emphasized that the result of a poll must be interpreted along with the poll’s margin of error so that the sample size and CI can be determined.

For more information on the science of polls, check out Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don’t, and Nate Silver’s blog FiveThiryEight

College of Management faculty Dr. Anne Kohnke, Dr. Jacqueline Stavros, and Dr. Matthew Cole attended the The Academy of Management 2012 Annual Meeting in Boston. The theme of the 2012 program was The Informal Economy:

“The informal economy refers to commercial activities that occur at least partially outside a governing body’s observation, taxation, and regulation. Sociologists Manuel Castell and Alejandro Portes suggest that the “informal economy is…characterized by one central feature: it is unregulated by the institutions of society in a legal and social environment in which similar activities are regulated.” In contrast to the informal economy, the formal economy is comprised of commercial activities that a governing body taxes and monitors for society’s benefit and whose outputs are included in a country’s gross domestic product. For many decades, management scholars have examined research questions that are almost exclusively centered on the organizations and individuals located in the formal economy. That is about to change.”

For students who are not familiar with the AOM, The Academy of Management started in 1936 when Professors Charles L. Jamison of the University of Michigan and William N. Mitchell of the University of Chicago organized a meeting of management educators to discuss and promote the philosophy of management. “The Academy has evolved from an organization of 10 members to an organization of over 17,500 members from over 105 nations. Today, the Academy’s 25 professional divisions and interest groups promote excellence in established management disciplines. Five U.S.-based affiliates, the Eastern, Midwest, Southwest, and Western Academies of Management and the Southern Management Association as well as two international affiliates, the Asia and Iberoamerican Academies of Management, promote the exchange of ideas and provide collaborative opportunities for colleagues sharing a geographic area, language, or cultural identity.”

Graduate management students can join the AOM for $91.00. The annual conference offers excellent opportunities for COM doctoral students to discuss their dissertations and receive critiques from AOM scholars and practitioners, as well as other AOM doctoral students.

In addition to attending informative paper sessions, symposiums, and professional development workshops, Drs. Kohnke, Stavros, and Cole had a great time networking and socializing in Boston.

Please join the faculty and staff in welcoming Dean Bahman Mirshab to Lawrence Tech’s College of Management. Dean Mirshab comes to Lawrence Tech from the Cameron School of Business at the University of St. Thomas in Houston, Texas. He was formerly dean of the College of Business at the University of Detroit-Mercy, and received his Ph.D. from Wayne State University.

Dean Mirshab successfully led the University of St. Thomas to AACSB accreditation, and we look forward to his leadership in helping us attain our goal of AACSB accreditation. Lawrence Tech issued a press release on August 7 announcing Dean Mirshab’s appointment.

Interim Associate Dean Stavros and I were proud to lead the College on an interim basis and look forward to working closely with Dean Mirshab in the future.

Sincerely,

Dr. Alan McCord
Associate Provost and Dean of Graduate Studies

The College of Management at Lawrence Tech University is hosting an open house on Saturday, June 9, 2012 from noon until 4:00 pm to recruit MBA students for the Toronto campus. Chris Balsingh, Mina Jena, and Nadia Shuayto are hosting the event at:

Delta Toronto East Hotel
2035 Kennedy Road
Toronto, MIT 3G2
Unionville Room

The Ontario market is interested in an American MBA with a focus on Theory and Practice. Based on recent conversation with students, they are very interested in earning a U.S. MBA from an accredited university.

For further information on the Toronto MBA Program, please visit the following website:

http://www.ltu.edu/management/international_toronto.asp

The times are definitely a-changin’ for the leaders and the nonprofit organizations making up the health safety net.  As moderator/facilitator for Day #2 of the 2012 Healthy Safety Net Symposium of Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan (BCBSM) which just completed on Thursday, I learned more about their commitment and challenges of delivering on this mission of quality healthcare for all. This variety of nonprofits from across the State provide quality preventive and primary healthcare to anyone regardless of income or insurance. My respect for this experienced group dedicated volunteers, board members and staff (including many health providers) grows only larger.

The first day of the 2012 HSN Symposium provided an update on federal healthcare reform which largely consisted of many experienced and educated professionals concluding that we really don’t know what the US Supreme Course will do with the Affordable Care Act of 2010. My work on the 2102 HSN Symposium focused on the second day and our planning team decided to focus on things more in our control, that is, organizational sustainability and transformation of the health safety net organizations.  I served as moderator and facilitator for three panels of experts, practitioners and stakeholders who engaged the audience of about 250 for the entire day.

I started the day with some context on the topic of organizational sustainability. What it takes to sustain any nonprofit organization has been heavily examined, written about and discussed with some areas of consensus emerging. Though there is no one methodology coming forward, there is clear consensus that it all starts with leadership at both the executive and board level. A good example of a model for nonprofit sustainability comes from The TCC Group , a nationally recognized nonprofit consulting firm. The TCC Group has done extensive research on organizational sustainability at nonprofit organizations and developed what they refer to at The Sustainability Formula. In its simplest form, they present their formula as this:  “Leadership + Adaptability + Program Capacity = Sustainability”.

Leaders of healthy safety net (HSN) organizations know full well the realities of sustaining and transforming their nonprofit organizations however the pace of the real-time decision-making they engage in has exponentially increased.  Along with restructuring that all U.S. nonprofits today face (For nonprofits, time to end business-as-usual ) , the leaders of these safety net organizations have the added dynamic of operating in the midst of the historic change in healthcare reform. Given the lack of clarity on many key issues, they are in need of relevant, timely information to inform their vision and planning. This was an over-arching goal of the 2012 HSN Symposium.

by Amanda Falkenbury

Dr. Richard Bush, Director of eLearning Services, and I visited the Detroit Veterans Housing Program this week.  We were invited for a tour by Volunteers of America Michigan.  This program offers two-year transitional housing for homeless veterans.  The facility houses 60 beds and is currently filled to capacity – only six months after opening its doors (November 11, 2011).  In addition to housing, the program provides veterans with counseling, employment training, and job placement assistance.  Leading the tour was Emilie Rohrback, Director of Community Engagement for Volunteers of America (Southeast Michigan).  She showed us around the common areas as well as the living quarters.  Upon visiting the living quarters, Dr. Bush, an army veteran himself, commented on the neatly made beds and the perfectly aligned shoes (heel to heel) sitting under each bed.  “It never leaves you”, he said, referencing the neatness required of military personnel. 

The facility is located on the outskirts of Detroit’s New Center area.  The program is housed in a building on East Milwaukee and offers a spectacular mural of Detroit at first view when you walk through the entrance.  When leaving the building I took one last look at the mural; it reminded me that Detroit is home - even to those who are homeless. 

If you’d like to learn more about the Detroit Veterans Housing Program, here is their website:

http://www.voami.org/Services/Veterans-Programs/The-Detroit-Veterans-Housing-Program

The keynote speaker at the ICAM conference was Sir Ken Robinson and quite possibly one of the best presenters I have ever heard.  He presented for two hours and had the entire audience captivated with his skillful presentatin and dry wit.  His British sense of humor was well received and presented a very powerful message about educating students on creativity, imagination, and innovation.

His presentation was focused on  his books, “The Element,” and “Out of Their Minds.” No! I don’t get commission on marketing his books:-)

The following are some of the quotes from his presentation:

“Diversity is the pulse of human achievement.”

“Life is not linear.”

“We need people who can think differently.”

“We live in a world that is culturally challenged.”

“Imagination is the root of innovation.”

“Anticipate the future: don’t predict it.”

“We are born with a capacity to be literate and creative.”

“If you’re serious about leading a culture of innovation, everyone and everyting need to be involved.”

“It’s not HOW creative you are, but how YOU are creative.”

“The role of a leader is not about control, it’s about climate control.”

Source: Sir Ken Robinson, 2012 ICAM Conference, San Diego, CA., May 2, 2012.

It’s worth taking a look at the following link for one of his presentations:

http://www.ted.com/talks/ken_robinson_says_schools_kill_creativity.html

Al and I (Nadia) are currently attending the 2012 AACSB International Conference and Annual Meeting in lovely San Diego, CA.  Although the weather hasn’t been that great, the conference has.  The conference is the largest gathering of deans, associate deans, department chairs, faculty, program directors, and business school teams.  The networking opportunity at the AACSB annual meetings is absolutely wonderful.  There are members from all over the world covering all continents sharing their thoughts and experiences on something common to all: management education.